Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
