Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
